There is never a dull moment in the politics and international relations of the Arab Gulf monarchies. Among states that half a century ago had yet to connect their major towns with paved roads, electricity, and water, one state now has a space program aiming for Mars the United Arab Emirates and another is the richest state on earth Qatar, as measured in gross domestic product per capita. Once a backwater of global affairs, the Gulf region is now squarely at its center.
Amid this transformation, one trend has remained constant: the frenetic, often disjointed search for security partnerships and alliances. For most of the past two hundred years, the once proto- and now consolidated states of the Arabian Peninsula sought and retained an unusual dependence on foreign powers.
Forming alliances and alignments has been part and parcel of the core statecraft of these countries and their primary mechanism for ensuring their survival, stability, and security. As a result, the Gulf region is now arguably the most internationalized security arena in the world. In recent decades, near-absolute reliance on the United States was the central security pillar of the Gulf states, alongside nominal but ultimately cosmetic efforts to diversify relationships and to build up indigenous defense capabilities.
Beginning with the administration of President George W. Bush, growing more pronounced during that of Barack Obama, and in full gear since Donald Trump became president, many Gulf leaders appear to sense that the Pax Americana is receding, that its benefits are no longer commensurate with their expectations and the stakes, and that such dependence comes with downsides that require strategic mitigation.
Exhausted by its interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and having long been less reliant on Middle Eastern oil than it once was, the United States sought to extricate itself from regional conflict notably with Iran and became less willing to advance the regional interests of its Gulf allies. In response, the Gulf monarchies demonstrated unprecedented if disunited and possibly unsustainable assertiveness in the military and foreign policy realms.
