Armenia and Azerbaijan are nearing the conclusion of bilateral negotiations on a peace agreement. Prolonged delays in these negotiations risk making Armenia a flashpoint in the broader Russia-West standoff. In this volatile context, two decisive steps could significantly bolster regional stability: Turkey honoring its July commitment to open its border with Armenia to foreign nationals, and Azerbaijan and Armenia finalizing the preliminary peace agreement they have been negotiating.
Such steps would not only promote stability but also unlock pathways for increased trade, deeper regional integration, and sustained prosperity for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and their neighbors. Relations between not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also Armenia and Turkey have been crippled for over 30 years by the long-standing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh, formerly a majority-ethnic Armenianβpopulated autonomous enclave within Soviet Azerbaijan, became a focal point of conflict during the First Karabakh War in the early s when Armenian forces seized control of the enclave and surrounding territories, displacing hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis.
Nagorno-Karabakh gained de facto independence as a result of this war, though it never garnered international recognition. After three decades of diplomatic efforts failed to yield a political settlement, Azerbaijan decided to revert to using force. In , in a six-week war, it regained the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and part of the enclave. When negotiations failed again to resolve the status of the enclave, Azerbaijan reclaimed the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh three years later in a military strike carried out Sept.
Ankara cut off its own talks with Armenia in , as Armenian forces were advancing into the Kalbajar district of Azerbaijan. To date, it has neither established diplomatic relations with Yerevan nor opened the border between the two countries. In the aftermath of the conflict, diplomatic talks between Armenia and Turkey led to tangible steps forward, including the resumption of direct flights between Yerevan and Istanbul, halted in , and the initiation of air cargo trade.
By mid, Yerevan and Ankara were promising their common border would soon open to third-country nationals. Yet, despite these initial gains, progress stalled, and the border remains closed.
