A failure might occur in either branch. There is one famous case where the prediction failure produced a very pleasant surprise! Broad classification of failures. The list of failures provided here, each of which will be discussed below in more detail, has been sub-divided as follows Where it resulted in world-level reactions in order of importance, not of chronology ;. Where it resulted in the loss of a battle;. Where it had serious results but they were containable.
Fall of the Berlin Wall November and collapse of the Soviet Union this was the pleasant surprise! Page 2 of The Cuban Missile Crisis of October These were dated 17 January, 21 March, 1 August and 19 September. All four in various words dismissed the likelihood that the SU would use Cu as a base for potential offensive action against the USA.
The 19 September report, after noting that there was a SU build-up in Cu, including anti-aircraft rockets, saw it as defensive and wrote the following The U2 overflights and Soviet diplomatic deception. There was then a gap of 39 days in the overflights Ref. On the 11 September this was said publically and there was also a message given to JFK from Kc to the same effect Ref. As mentioned, there were no U2 overflights for 39 days after 5 September , possibly because of a reorganisation which handed the aircraft over to the USAF.
This fact was reported to JFK and government seniors on 16 October. The consequences have been reported many times and do not need repeating here. An ad hoc group considered various ways of responding to the situation, granted that the nation could not let it pass unchallenged. JFK did not reveal what had been discovered. On 21 October JFK decided that a quarantine would be established around Cu to prevent any missiles being received by sea by that island. He announced the U2 discovery and the US reaction to the nation and the world on 22 October.
Both sides came to high alert. Undoubtedly a factor considered by the SU was the presence under-sea of 7 invulnerable Polaris-armed nuclear submarines.
